Happy Gerrymandering

In case you didn’t know, this is a redistricting year: an event that captures the imagination of every living politico every ten years!!! It is political nirvana. Unfortunately, it’s not working out so well for Ohio this year as we are going to lose two congressional seats. We currently have 18 congressional seats, and we are heading down to 16. It’s not that our population is falling. It actually increased 1 ½ % over the past ten years. It’s just that other southern states grew by 5%. Notwithstanding, we are still the 5th most populous state in the union.

Things don’t look so good for the Dems. Across this great country Republicans have taken control of most governorships and statehouses, which means they can draw (gerrymander) the districts to suit Republican purposes. Ohio is no exception. With a clean Republican sweep from the Supreme Court to the legislature, it is Ohio Republican nirvana.

Here is an interesting fact. Out of the current 18 Ohio Congressman, only five are Democrats. A recent article in the Washington Post blog commented on what is going to happen here. Above is a non-authorized copy of the Ohio congressional map. Stunning, isn’t it? I live in the part of Mahoning County that is in the 6th district, that long district running the length of the Ohio River. It is currently represented by the newly elected Republican Bill Johnson from Poland, the part that is in the 17th District. If you live in the city or Austintown, you are also in the 17th. That district stretches to the eastern border of Akron. Tim Ryan is your Congressman.

So…the WP Blog speculated on what Ohio Republicans are going to do to eliminate Democrats and maintain Republicans in the Congress. In a state that is essentially a toss-up state, can Republicans eliminate 2 Democratic seats while maintaining all the existing Republican seats? WP says no. I say maybe. But the more interesting question is how will that affect us here in the Mahoning Valley?

One thing everyone agrees on is that the Ohio 13th Congressional district, currently containing most of Akron and running up west of Cuyahoga County to the lake is bye-bye. It is easy to move Democratic constituencies to adjoining Democratic districts. Unfortunately, it doesn’t eliminate the district currently held by Dennis Kucinich, the ultimate Republican dream.

Past that, all bets are off. The Washington Post blog opines that the current Ohio Republican Congressional delegation is a fluke, and in a normal circumstances, would be more evenly distributed. It points directly to the Ohio 6th District to make its case. The Ohio 6th was Ted Strickland’s district before he was elected governor. He was replaced by Democrat Charlie Wilson for 2 terms. In November, Wilson was beat…totally unexpectedly…by Republican Bill Johnson, who neither lives nor works in the District. His employer is in Warren, and most of his initial financial support came from Trumbull County and points west.

The 6th District is an easy target to breakup. It is 375 miles long, and joins together a population that has practically nothing in common. Canfield/Boardman suburbanites have little in common with southern Ohio coal miners, yet here we are. The Republicans would be more than willing, so says the Washington Post, to give up a toss-up district currently held by a Republican in order to shore up more heavily Republican adjoining districts. Canfield and Boardman would be bounced back into the 17th…maybe. Who knows?

At the heart of the problem seems to be the newly elected Congressman Bill Johnson, who has had problems establishing a connection with the state party, and some of the local Republican parties. And while the local media says that Columbiana County Republican Party Chairman Dave Johnson (no relation) will have a major say in the process, it implies that he sees some merit in keeping the 6th as it currently exists. I’m not sure that’s the case.

For his part, Congressman Johnson has already announced he is selling his house located in the part of Poland that is in the 17th District and moving to Marietta. Ostensibly, he says it’s because it is central to the district he represents. But the subtext is he may see the handwriting on the wall, and is moving to a part of the district that would allow him to run in whatever Congressional district Marietta eventually ends up in if the 6th is chopped up. His wife has strong connections to the Marietta area, and it is a source of political strength for him.

Of course, that is what the Washington Post thinks. Me? I think the Ohio Republicans would not knowingly give up a current Republican Congressional seat, personal feelings about Bill Johnson be damned. I think they will try to squeeze out two sure Democratic seats, and will succeed because the population loss in northeast Ohio is so profound. I hope that is the case. I like being in the 6th Congressional district. It is diverse, and is more aligned with my political views.

Akron and Youngstown will be moved into the same Congressional District putting Tim Ryan at risk. And they may even move Canfield into Canton’s district…and Boardman into…what the hell, let’s put in with Dayton. Here’s an idea, let’s put Struthers and Campbell in with Toledo. Now THAT is a Congressional District.

Happy Gerrymandering.