For the Republicans, it looks like the show is over before it begins. Things seem to have settled down after debates in South Carolina and New Hampshire. All of the candidates seem to have bought into Ronald Reagan’s 11th Commandment: Thou shalt not speak ill of any fellow Republican. Tim Pawlenty tried to attack Mitt Romney, and was quickly silenced. And recent polls and public appearances and statements have led me to believe that while there will be a primary, it will be between three front runners, with the runner-up spot being the Vice Presidency.
So, let’s take a look. Tim Pawlenty and Rick Santorum are non-starters. They are barely showing in poll numbers in the Iowa. They are nice, capable guys, but so is my plumber. Newt Gingrich is self destructing before our eyes. He is a conservative icon that should continue to be a conservative icon. He will continue to be the conscience and sage of the conservative movement…but Dude, your whole staff quit on you. Then there is John Huntsman…John who? He is the darling of the liberal media, speaks fluent Mandarin, but he was Obama’s Ambassador to China while China cleaned our clock. If NBC likes him, he doesn’t have a chance in the Republican primary. And let’s not forget Ron Paul. The lovable libertarian will continue to remind us of things about which we should be concerned, but global warming will be actually proved before he gets elected president.
We are left with the declared front runners, a charismatic black guy who sells pizza and a bunch of heavyweights skulking in the background. And it is here that I have decided that Republicans have made the “dill”. Let’s start with the undeclared. New Jersey’s Chris Christie appeared on Fox News yesterday morning and stated once again he is NOT running for President. He doesn’t feel it is right. I believe him. Sarah Palin has kind of dropped out of site. She is making her movie debut this week in Iowa, but she is being out politicked and out classed by another conservative female. And Texas Governor Rick Perry has been flirting with a run…but he can’t make a decision until after his legislative session is done in Texas, and he has completed some back surgery. The back surgery did it for me. He’s out.
It almost appears as if there was a Republican summit to weed out the field and leave the three strongest candidates standing to duke it out in a civilized manner with the issue being not who can beat whom in a Republican primary, but who can beat Obama in 2012. And I wouldn’t be surprised if the powers that be talked to each one of these guys to form a strong, unified front against Obama.
Mitt Romney is the putative front runner, but barely holding on by one point against Michele Bachmann in Iowa. He is ahead in New Hampshire. And both Romney and Bachmann face a strong challenge from Herman Cain in South Carolina. These are the three that have out maneuvered the rest of the field, both declared and undeclared. Right now, the only decision to be made is who will be at the top the ticket and who will be number 2…and who gets the consolation prize.
I believe that Bachmann will ultimately win Iowa…and watch Herman Cain move to second. I believe Romney will win New Hampshire, with Bachmann number 2. I believe Herman Cain will win South Carolina, with Bachmann coming in at second. This will extend the primary season so less dogmatic states have some input.
Although I think Herman Cain is a great guy, a great conservative, and the most dynamic candidate in the Republican field, at the end of the day he is a businessman, and I don’t think he seriously wants the job. He may be in it to win it…but “it” may be a Chairman of the Council of Economic Advisors. I think he will eventually withdraw from the race.
So…here’s the “dill.” Ticket will be Romney/Bachmann. If they win…Palin will either be Secretary of the Interior of Secretary or Energy, the former controlling public land leases and the latter speaks for itself. Cain will be put into any number of economic related jobs. The rest of the candidates will ultimately be content to stay where they are.
On the other hand, I thought Giuliani was going to be the Republican nominee in 2008. Pay your money and take your chances!!!!!
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