2012: The Most Important Election Since 1860

As we welcome in the New Year, Americans need to know that the 2012 Presidential election is the most important election since 1860. All Americans need to pay close attention to the issues. We need to put away some of the distractions and at least try to understand what this election is about.

The question is clear. What should be the nature of our government? Should it be a bureaucratic monolith attempting to micro manage every facet of our lives from what we eat to what we drive to how we light our houses to how much money we are allowed to make? Or should it be a government that derives its power from the people, and abides by Constitutional principles limiting its authority? Are we a nation of equal results? Are we a nation of equal opportunity? Are we nation based on “fairness”? Are we a nation based on competition? These are the issues that will define this nation for the next 100 years.

The 1860 election was a scary time. Then, as now, the country was bitterly divided. The issue was slavery, or more specifically, the expansion of slavery into new territories and states. Everybody was angry. Nobody was talking, and compromises turned into even more bitter divisions. The single largest asset class in the United States was slaves…human beings. It was a horrible set of circumstances.

The Democratic Party, the party of Jefferson, had divided in two separate political parties: pro-slavery/pro-secession Democrats in the South; pro-slavery/anti-secession Democrats in the north. And then there was the Constitutional Whig Party and the upstart almost brand spanking new Republican Party. Four political parties bringing this nation to the brink of the abyss!

The results of that election are glossed over in the high school history books. The Republican Party and Lincoln weren’t even listed on the ballots in the deep south. Lincoln won the election with only 39% of the popular vote. He was able to garner sufficient electoral votes by winning big in the hard core northern states. He came in 4th in what is now known as the border states where folks were able to vote for him.

The result of the chaos leading up to the election, and the chaos resulting from the election, was a war in which 500,000 Americans were killed…more than all the other wars fought in American history. Gettysburg alone had 43,000 casualties in three days, almost equal to the number of casualties in the Vietnam War. It was a war that was stumbled into. It never should have happened, and our civil society collapsed.

Once again Americans are on edge. Most of us don’t understand the nature of our discontent. But there are parallels between now and then in the sense that our civil society could be in jeopardy. The President of the United States is leading a class war, claiming that those who are already paying 80% of the federal tax bill aren’t paying enough…their “fair share.” He neglects to tell you that almost 50% of working Americans pay NO income tax. If that is the case, then he is lying to the American public, which bodes the question why?

Americans shouldn’t be surprised. He said he wanted to fundamentally change America. My question is from what to what. He doesn’t tell you that, because you won’t like what he has to say. He and his cronies believe America is a flawed nation with a suspect Constitution that stands in the way of Barack Obama’s vision of “fairness.” For now, he has to pay lip service to what the Constitution stands for. But give him another four years…and you will see him attempt to destroy it altogether.

That’s why his actions aren’t in synch with his words, and he seems tone deaf to the very real problems that are facing the nation. He is following a “higher” vision of world order and income redistribution which is at its best socialism, and at its worst communism. Unemployment, suffering, hunger, homelessness, skyrocketing food and utility bills are just the price one has to pay to achieve the utopian dream of “fundamental fairness.” Those who have studied Russian history understand the dynamic that changed the worker’s revolution into the worker’s worst nightmare. Pop some popcorn and watch Dr. Zhivago. Is this what you want for America?

Whenever one tinkers with the pillars of a society, the danger is always you never know where the roof is going to fall. Things have a habit of getting out of control. This is the debate. America needs to pay attention.

The Mahoning Valley's Second Bite at the Apple: The Need to Come Together

It’s not too often that an area gets a second bite at the apple, but that is exactly what is happening in the Mahoning Valley. What is amazing is the number of people who live here that don’t know or understand what is going on. The economic rebirth is so massive and happening so quickly it is beyond comprehension. Now it’s time for the political, business and union leaders of the valley to come together to educate the public as to the bounty and dangers with which we are dealing so that this area can gain the maximum economic advantage while protecting our slice of heaven from legitimate dangers.

The former steel industrial base of this region had its foundation in coal. Brier Hill coal was plentiful and pure. It was the highest grade of coal available back in the day and fueled the Mahoning Valley’s economic boom at the turn of the 20th century making us among the largest steel producing areas in the world at the beginning of World War 1. Now it is natural gas and oil found in the Marcellus and Utica shale fields a mile underneath us.

New methods of drilling called fracking have been perfected over the years. We are familiar with the natural gas wells that drill straight down until pocket a of gas is hit…and we are off to the races. Fracking involves lateral sideways drilling into an underground rock formation and injection of fluids into the well to actually form cracks in the rock releasing carbon fuels. The shale beneath us holds an abundance of natural gas, and oil, that this method of drilling can now tap into. The amount is mind boggling, and can define the economic future of the United States for the next 100 years.

The good news is that natural gas, although a carbon fuel, burns clean and more efficiently than coal. The bad news is that fracking is a nasty business. Drilling sites aren’t the benign operations we are used to with the flag at the top of the drilling rig. These are industrial operations and produce waste water bi-products filled with brine and other chemicals. On the other hand, technology has progressed to the point where many of the concerns have been addressed.

This is a high stake poker game with hundreds of millions dollars if not billions of dollars poised to flow in the Trumbull, Mahoning and Columbiana counties. The Vindicator reported last week that Chesapeake and other gas drillers have obtained drilling rights in excess of 80,000 acres of land in Trumbull County alone with signing bonuses in excess of $4500.00/acre. Do the math folks…and this is only the beginning.

In addition, V and M Star is currently building the largest single industrial project in the United States down on the Mahoning River to provide pipe to the gas drillers. While V and M grabs the headlines, numerous smaller support industries are popping up all over from direct industrial supply companies to people providing apartment rentals and temporary housing. It is a boom in every sense of the word.

Casting a cloud over the rebirth is the downright hostility of the Obama administration and his uber aggressive EPA to any carbon fuels. Case in point, Obama is attempting to stall a new economic lifeline to this country by blocking the Keystone Pipeline from Canada to Houston, which would have the effect of making North America almost energy independent. Fracking sends Obama and EPA buddies into a complete rage as they are now beginning the effort to block as much of this economic development as possible.

The current administration is no friend to this kind of development. It is the enemy. That is why it is important that Republicans and Democrats, union officials and businesses, and those legitimate environmental groups who want development with safety rather than no development at all to get together and address the issues this new economic opportunity presents to the Valley.

Whether we like it or not, the future of eastern Ohio and western Pennsylvania and northwestern West Virginia is in coal and natural gas development. We need to educate ourselves and come together so that we are proactive with a coordinated effort to address the challenges and opportunities that our at our front door. If we watch from the sidelines, we will be throwing it all away.

The Case for Chris Christie

Charles Krauthammer made some interesting observations about the upcoming presidential election and the state of the Republican nomination process. He said on Fox News that the polls tell the story. Republicans shouldn’t take for granted that Obama can be beat next fall. He pointed out that while Obama loses to a generic Republican by at least 7 – 10 points, he is even or beats Gingrich and/or Romney in a head to head matchup. He concluded that if the election was going to be a simple referendum on Obama, everything would be fine. But Obama will demonize whoever runs against him, and a “strong” conservative candidate with baggage will have a tough time beating him. He supports a candidate that would best match the “generic Republican.”  That would be Mitt Romney.

Major uber conservative pundits like Rush Limbaugh and Sean Hannity have the opposite view. They advocate for a strong conservative candidate believing that the message will ultimately ring true with the electorate…and point to Ronald Reagan as the example. But are they right if the candidate is Newt Gingrich? Although Newt is this writer’s personal favorite, I also have issues with his electability. And in this election, the most important since 1860, there is NOTHING more important than beating Barack Obama.

So what are we to do? I have written, and still believe, that the Republicans are headed towards a brokered convention. Romney is to “white bread”. He is boring. He would make an excellent President. Following Krauthammer’s theory, he is the perfect candidate. The election would be about Obama with Romney the safe generic alternative. He even looks the part. Call central casting for a President, they will send you Mitt Romney.

But there is an alternative, and I think his candidacy become ever so slightly more plausible every day. Chris Christie has been in the news a lot the past few weeks. He has endorsed Mitt Romney. He has made several public statements regarding Romney and Obama, and even visited Iowa to drum up support for….Romney?

The fact is that the Republicans are looking at two candidates they really don't like. Romney will never cut it with the Evangelicals, and I don’t care what the pundits say. They question isn't will they vote for Obama...of course they won't.  The question is will they turn out for Romney.  Word to the wise, local evangelical churches are giving sermons that Mormanism is a cult.  That is a bad sign.

Gingrich is three times married and has converted to Catholicism the third time around. He worked as a consultant for Freddie Mac and has pocketed $1.5 million from one of the two agencies that were the root cause of the financial meltdown in 2008…just prior to 2008. Yes, you can raise your eyebrows. And now he has Republicans speaking out against him criticizing his leadership skills, threatening to mount 3rd party campaigns if he is the Republican nominee. Let’s face it. That dog won't hunt.

It is clear to me that no candidate is going to into the Republican convention late summer with a lock on the nomination. And the divides will be tough to bridge because there is no ideal candidate in this years bouquet of candidates. Couple that with the threat of a third party run from Ron Paul or Jon Huntsman, the Republicans are going to be looking for a compromise.

And that compromise will be Chris Christie. His politics are moderate like Romney's. His demeanor is tough and abrasive like Gingrich. He is someone that can rally Republicans behind him if not on political positions, then style. He appeals to those who just want to get Obama out of the White House and get someone in there who can clean this mess up.

And Christie has shown in New Jersey he has the ability to “clean the mess up.” A Christie/Rubio ticket would be unbeatable. And the threat of such a ticket may even force Obama not to seek a second term. Christie has paid lip service to not wanting to run, and has dutifully aligned himself with Romney who shares Christie’s political views. But he is out on the trail hammering Obama in a style that conservatives love.

Republicans need to take a second look, and save the party from a Gingrich crash and burn and a Romney milk and cookie fest. Republicans, and the country, deserve better than Krauthammer’s generic Republican candidate. Christie's the one.

America Bails Out Europe

On November 30, unnoticed by most of the American public, the United States began the financial bailout of Europe. It was a big deal, and the financial markets started a sustained move up as the investor class heaved a sigh of relief that Europe wasn’t going to go under…or so says conventional wisdom.

Americans, for the most part, are blissfully ignorant about the problems in Europe and specifically its currency, the Euro. We know that it is there. We know that travel to Europe is expensive. Some of us know that the Eurozone collectively is the largest economy in the world. And even less of us know that it is America’s largest trading partner.

The European Union is NOT a United States of Europe. It was formed by a series of treaties beginning at the end of World War II, culminating in a part time European Parliament and an almost single currency. Britain, for example, is a member of the European Union but declined participation in the Euro opting to keep its own pound sterling currency.

It is a flawed system. It is not a unified system. While there is a single European Central Bank, it cannot issue “Euro Bonds.” Each country maintains its own fiscal policy resulting in different interest rates in each country with no central regulating authority, a function served by the Federal Reserve Bank in the United States (Ron Paul…take note). The result is bonds issued by countries denominated in Euros at wildly disparate interest rates, guaranteed by…are you ready…credit default swaps (sound familiar)…and nobody knows who owns bonds issued by the good countries (Germany and France)…or the bad countries (Portugal, Ireland, Italy Greece and Spain…the Piigs). If any of the countries default the currency collapses making all of those bonds denominated in Euros worthless. And there is a lot of debt floating around. When a currency gets into this kind of pickle, the solution is to devalue the currency by printing more money to pay the debt. The Euro has no such mechanism. And politically, the Germans and French citizenry does not want to be in the position of having to pay for the financial indiscretions of the Greeks and Italians.

So…at the end of November the collapse of the Greek and Italian debt markets seemed imminent, and credit denominated in Euros froze in Europe…exactly like in the United States in September of 2008. It was world financial collapse Part Deux. European banks refused to accept overnight loans denominated in Euros and demanded Dollars. Interest rates for dollars soared…the credit default swaps guaranteeing Euro denominated bonds (issued by…get this…AIG) were on the verge of default.

In a panic, the central banks of the world led by the United States, including Russia and China, poured dollars into the European system by freezing interest rates at an artificially low rate for money borrowed in dollars by and between European banks. The system unfroze, and the can was kicked down the road one more time.

The financial markets soared in relief. Unfortunately, the bigger picture is bleak. The debt is still there. The Germans and French are still not ready to devalue their currency to bail out the Greeks and Italians. While there are discussions ongoing to force the Piigs to relinquish sovereignty to a central European authority, the political realities of that happening are still lost in the afterglow of the European bailout by the United States and friends. As it is currenlty structured, the crisis has been averted until January 1st when it will happen all over again.

This is scary stuff, every bit as scary as what happened here in September, 2008. And like here, the debt doesn’t dissipate…it only gets worse.

As the saying goes…never a lender or borrower be.