I am writing this “pre-mortem” prior to the Tuesday primary because for the Mahoning Valley, the story is always the same. We are important to the national election process. The politicians know it. We don’t. Why does an area whose population is stable at best, and more likely than not declining, been so privileged to host such a wide variety of Democratic candidates? In the past two weeks we have been graced with presence of Hillary Clinton, Barack Obama, Michelle Obama, Ted Kennedy, Caroline Kennedy, and Hillary Clinton again. What do they know that we don’t? Or do we know why, and choose not to do anything about it?
Here’s the deal. You can look at the red state / blue state map, and it pretty much tells the tale about the electoral base of each party. Except for Florida, the South belongs to the Republicans. The Democrats can count on New York and California, some of the northwestern states and New England states. The rest are in play, some more important than others. For the past two elections, the difference between winning and losing was in Florida and Ohio. Beware of those saying “this time it will be different.” It won’t be. Ohio is in play again.
Why Ohio? First, it still is the 7th largest state in the Union, and has held onto that ranking for a long time. The urban legend is that its population is declining. The truth is it is increasing, just not as fast as other states, most of which are in the 6 states ahead of Ohio in population in the first place. Congressional seats and electoral votes have been lost to those states.
Of all the states, it probably most represents what America looks like. Picture the state of Ohio, and draw a line from Toledo to Marietta diagonal across the state. South and West of that line, the state is mostly conservative and tends to vote Republican. North and east it tends to vote Democrat. The line bisects Franklin County, which pretty much describes the mix in Columbus, 50-50.
Ohio is also at the crossroads of various ethnic and ideological groups. The east has a heavy blue collar union Democratic vote. Get around Cincinnati and you have a strong Southern/Midwest influence coming in from Kentucky and Indiana. The northeast is heavily industrial with rust belt kind of industries and the vast center and western parts of Ohio are heavily agricultural…and I will include Columbus, which is still a big, farm town. Any Democratic vote coming out of Toledo is offset by Reagan Democrat votes along the Ohio River in the East Liverpool / Steubenville area and points south. They are Democrats, but gun control is the single overriding issue. Liberal Democrats don’t do well there.
As you heard many times before, no Republican has ever won the Presidency without winning Ohio. But here is the corollary; no Republican has ever won Ohio without carrying at least 35% of the vote from Mahoning County. Wait a minute, Mahoning County votes Democrat 100% of the time. That is true, but it isn’t who wins that counts in Mahoning County, it is by how much. If the Democratic vote in Mahoning County is kept to no more than 65 -68%, all other things being equal, the Republican candidate will take Ohio.
Bush’s campaign knew this. During the past two elections, it sent in some pretty heavy hitter operatives from its campaign to run things here in Mahoning County. Campaign workers would receive telephone calls from Washington at all hours of the night giving them specific addresses to call on in heavily Democratic areas in parts of Youngstown, Campbell and Struthers, many of them in Catholic neighborhoods. Bush made one stop here at the air base, but his campaign had a major presence here, and it went mostly undetected.
So, while the media is watching Cuyahoga, Franklin and Hamilton Counties, the vote in Ohio can be predicted by watching Mahoning, Trumbull, Columbiana, and Stark Counties. A suppressed Democratic vote in these counties will shift the advantage to the Republicans in the rest of the state. The importance of these 4 counties in Ohio is as important as Broward and Dade Counties are to Florida. It is the same dynamic. It’s not whether they will vote Democrat, but by how much.
That makes us important. One can argue with a straight face that we choose the President of the United States. Jim Traficant knew this, and he parlayed it into a whole bunch of money for this area by triangulating it between the Democrats and Republicans. Now our gerrymandered congressional districts are split between Tim Ryan, north of Route 224, and Charlie Wilson, south of Route 224. Both seem to be playing things in a more traditional manner. Ryan is bringing some money to the area; Wilson not so much, although they seem to cooperate.
Notwithstanding, the Mahoning Valley continually underestimates its importance in national politics, and it ought to wake up and flex some muscle demanding specific promises from both the Democratic and Republican nominees for President when they come a’knockin’. We shouldn’t let them get away with a royal screw job as Bill Clinton did to this area with the promised, then denied, Federal payroll center which he promised to locate here.
Whether Republican or Democrat, union or management, urban or suburban, if we don’t look out for this area, no one will. Every voter should be educated as to the importance of this area in the national political process, and should use that to our advantage. When it comes to party politics, area residents can do whatever at the local and state level. But at the national level, we should stand united. Wake up, folks. If we don’t know what we got, we will everything we don’t deserve.
Here’s the deal. You can look at the red state / blue state map, and it pretty much tells the tale about the electoral base of each party. Except for Florida, the South belongs to the Republicans. The Democrats can count on New York and California, some of the northwestern states and New England states. The rest are in play, some more important than others. For the past two elections, the difference between winning and losing was in Florida and Ohio. Beware of those saying “this time it will be different.” It won’t be. Ohio is in play again.
Why Ohio? First, it still is the 7th largest state in the Union, and has held onto that ranking for a long time. The urban legend is that its population is declining. The truth is it is increasing, just not as fast as other states, most of which are in the 6 states ahead of Ohio in population in the first place. Congressional seats and electoral votes have been lost to those states.
Of all the states, it probably most represents what America looks like. Picture the state of Ohio, and draw a line from Toledo to Marietta diagonal across the state. South and West of that line, the state is mostly conservative and tends to vote Republican. North and east it tends to vote Democrat. The line bisects Franklin County, which pretty much describes the mix in Columbus, 50-50.
Ohio is also at the crossroads of various ethnic and ideological groups. The east has a heavy blue collar union Democratic vote. Get around Cincinnati and you have a strong Southern/Midwest influence coming in from Kentucky and Indiana. The northeast is heavily industrial with rust belt kind of industries and the vast center and western parts of Ohio are heavily agricultural…and I will include Columbus, which is still a big, farm town. Any Democratic vote coming out of Toledo is offset by Reagan Democrat votes along the Ohio River in the East Liverpool / Steubenville area and points south. They are Democrats, but gun control is the single overriding issue. Liberal Democrats don’t do well there.
As you heard many times before, no Republican has ever won the Presidency without winning Ohio. But here is the corollary; no Republican has ever won Ohio without carrying at least 35% of the vote from Mahoning County. Wait a minute, Mahoning County votes Democrat 100% of the time. That is true, but it isn’t who wins that counts in Mahoning County, it is by how much. If the Democratic vote in Mahoning County is kept to no more than 65 -68%, all other things being equal, the Republican candidate will take Ohio.
Bush’s campaign knew this. During the past two elections, it sent in some pretty heavy hitter operatives from its campaign to run things here in Mahoning County. Campaign workers would receive telephone calls from Washington at all hours of the night giving them specific addresses to call on in heavily Democratic areas in parts of Youngstown, Campbell and Struthers, many of them in Catholic neighborhoods. Bush made one stop here at the air base, but his campaign had a major presence here, and it went mostly undetected.
So, while the media is watching Cuyahoga, Franklin and Hamilton Counties, the vote in Ohio can be predicted by watching Mahoning, Trumbull, Columbiana, and Stark Counties. A suppressed Democratic vote in these counties will shift the advantage to the Republicans in the rest of the state. The importance of these 4 counties in Ohio is as important as Broward and Dade Counties are to Florida. It is the same dynamic. It’s not whether they will vote Democrat, but by how much.
That makes us important. One can argue with a straight face that we choose the President of the United States. Jim Traficant knew this, and he parlayed it into a whole bunch of money for this area by triangulating it between the Democrats and Republicans. Now our gerrymandered congressional districts are split between Tim Ryan, north of Route 224, and Charlie Wilson, south of Route 224. Both seem to be playing things in a more traditional manner. Ryan is bringing some money to the area; Wilson not so much, although they seem to cooperate.
Notwithstanding, the Mahoning Valley continually underestimates its importance in national politics, and it ought to wake up and flex some muscle demanding specific promises from both the Democratic and Republican nominees for President when they come a’knockin’. We shouldn’t let them get away with a royal screw job as Bill Clinton did to this area with the promised, then denied, Federal payroll center which he promised to locate here.
Whether Republican or Democrat, union or management, urban or suburban, if we don’t look out for this area, no one will. Every voter should be educated as to the importance of this area in the national political process, and should use that to our advantage. When it comes to party politics, area residents can do whatever at the local and state level. But at the national level, we should stand united. Wake up, folks. If we don’t know what we got, we will everything we don’t deserve.
WEDNESAY MORNING POST SCRIPT
The Ohio Democratic primary winner was late in being called by the news media last night. Much of the discussion was centered around the Cuyahoga County results. However, Michael Barone, the Fox News analyst responsible for calling a winner, called it for Clinton before the Cuyahoga County results were released. The determinative factor in calling the winner: he overtly stated it was the results in Mahoning and Stark Counties, and he mentioned Youngstown and Canton by name.
The Ohio Democratic primary winner was late in being called by the news media last night. Much of the discussion was centered around the Cuyahoga County results. However, Michael Barone, the Fox News analyst responsible for calling a winner, called it for Clinton before the Cuyahoga County results were released. The determinative factor in calling the winner: he overtly stated it was the results in Mahoning and Stark Counties, and he mentioned Youngstown and Canton by name.
No comments:
Post a Comment