I am writing this on Tuesday morning of the Iowa caucuses. Nobody knows who the winner is going to be. Over the course of the Iowa campaign to win a very strange yet quaint election process, we have seen candidates rise and fall. First there was the Republican Michele ma belle, then Rick Perry, then Herman Cain, then Newt Gingrich, and finally Rick Santorum cresting today…the day of the event. Santorum may be the last non-Romney standing…the question is for how long.
And that should be a concern for Romney and his constant 25%. It is interesting listening to the press commentary, the vast majority of which is centered on how Republicans will coalesce around Romney in the end. I don’t know what math class they took in school, but obviously not the same one I did. Romney cannot win the nomination with 25% of the vote. This guy has 75% of the Republican party working against him. I think everyone can agree that none of the non-Romney candidates can win the general election. So where will their support fall as that 75% looks for a place to land?
Start with Ron Paul who has a firm 20% of the vote and an enthusiastic following. His voters are committed. I can assure they will not line up behind Romney. Then there are the evangelicals. They are the most important of the group because they have to be enthusiastic about a candidate and be willing to show up in November to vote…enthusiastically. They have bounced around from Bachmann to Cain to Gingrich and right now have roosted with Santorum, and conservative Catholic. These folks don’t want Romney. Catholicism is a stretch for some of these folks, and Mormonism is a bridge too far. The Republicans cannot afford to alienate these folks. They need to show up in November in big numbers. Then there are the Tea Party folks. Romneycare in Massachusetts may be a wall too big to hurdle for these folks. They don’t trust him.
There is one other factor that plays into Mitt’s 25% solution. Many of the states this year have forsaken winner take all primaries. That means that Romney may win a state, but will show up at the convention with maybe 30% of the delegates from that state at best.
So, prior to knowing who wins the Iowa caucuses, let’s do some speculation. Let’s say there is essentially a three way tie tonight between Romney, Santorum, and Paul. On to New Hampshire, which everyone agrees will be won by Romney. Then there is South Carolina…to Santorum or Gingrich. Then Florida…also to non-Romney Santorum and or Gingrich. And it goes on and on like this through super Tuesday in March. Where does Romney come up with more than 25% of the delegates that equals his 25% of Republican support?
I like Mitt Romney. I think he would make a fine candidate against Obama. But I am not excited about him. There is no passion. And after the debacle with McCain, I believe the Republican Party will not nominate another milk toast candidate. It won’t be enough to simply vote against Obama. Republicans want, and deserve, someone they can vote for. They need that type of candidate to win.
Hello Chris Christie.
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