It’s time the Republican Party wakes up and smells the coffee. The Republican nomination for President should not be a longevity award like a gold watch. Unfortunately, it is that way more often than not, and when it happens, the Republicans lose. Over the past several years, two longevity candidates stand out: Bob Dole and John McCain. Both fine men, both lousy presidential nominees.
John McCain is the more blatant of the two. The rank and file of the party didn’t want him. Even his own mother said people should hold their noses and vote for John. When Mom knows the score, that’s pretty bad!!! Huckabee, Giuliani, and/or Romney would have made a better candidate in 2008. Financial collapse notwithstanding, could any candidate be more boring and uninspiring than John McCain?
Here’s one. Bob Dole in 1996. Another war hero, but geez oh man. Couldn’t we get somebody breathing? (Although combine his vote with Ross Perot’s vote, the total was only 1.5% less than Bill Clinton’s, which says more about Clinton and Perot than Dole).
This year we are facing the same situation again. The Republican establishment, and the press, and most everyone I know think that Romney should and will win the nomination. The problem is he is as inspiring as a rock. Nice guy, probably qualified, but he’s like watching grass grow. Sometimes slow and steady is good. This isn’t one of those times.
Opposing him are Newt Gingrich, Rick Santorum, and Ron Paul. No matter what Romney does, he still can’t get over 38% of the vote. Right now, Santorum is the anti-Romney candidate after taking it over from Gingrich who shot himself in the foot as always. Nobody is sure Santorum can hold on, but he is showing strength in Ohio and Michigan, while Gingrich will probably win Georgia.
All of this is leading to a brokered convention. Romney cannot with a majority of delegates going into the convention with 38% of the vote. Do you really think that Santorum or Gingrich or Ron Paul will release their delegates to Romney? Paul might because he has a personal relationship with Romney, but Santorum and Gingrich are shrewd. And I think in their heart of hearts they know they can’t beat Obama, and they don't like Romney.
Sitting in the wings is Chris Christie of New Jersey who just bought himself 5% of the black vote by ordering the flag flown at ½ mast for Whitney Houston and sticking by his decision against military criticism. He attended the 4 hour marathon funeral, and got praise from the pulpit. What a masterful stroke of political genius!!!
Christie is the only candidate who can beat Barack Obama this fall. He sounds like a conservative and has stood up to the unions bolstering his conservative credentials. But he basically a Romney moderate with Santorum’s east coast blue collar appeal. He is the perfect candidate.
He appeals to independents by appearing on shows like Oprah. He has now endeared himself to the black community opening up an alternative to African Americans who would feel unable to vote for a white bread Mormon. All Christie has to do is to attract 2 or 3% of the African American community, and Obama is done. If he adds Marco Rubio to the ticket, it is a political strategist's dream: bringing together conservatives, moderates, Latino’s, and African American’s. Christie can win New Jersey, Pennsylvania, Ohio, Michigan, Indiana, and even maybe New York.
Christie continues to impress me. He is taking advantage of every possibility to appear as a reasonable and sensible alternative to those who tearing each other apart in this bizarre primary season. One should not only look to where he is appearing, but where he is not. As the primary approaches on February 28 in Michigan and Arizona, don’t look for Christie in either of those states campaigning for Romney. On Super Tuesday, don’t look for Christie in Ohio, which is where Santorum has chosen to make his stand. He has dutifully stood by Romney like a good little, well not so little, Republican. Now it's every man for himself.
Here’s the deal. The Republicans will give the nod to Christie at the convention. They will give the nod to Rubio at the convention. Romney will be tapped to be Secretary of State, and Santorum can have his pick of whatever is left. Energy Secretary might be a good choice.
You can bet on it!!!!!
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